Trump and Terrorism

IN HIS INAUGURATION SPEECH, President Donald Trump announced his plans to unite the civilised world to eradicate ISIL (Islamic State). It was applauded by the vast majority of the audience. However, numerous experts suggest that Trump’s inexperience and his close collaboration with the Israeli government might undermine any effort to defeat Islamic terrorism.

President Trump will soon have to make two major decisions that will determine his future success fighting terrorism: Move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and decide whether he cancels the Iran nuclear deal or not.

Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to convince Trump that cancelling the Iran nuclear deal would benefit the security in both the region and western countries. He alleges that the current deal will soon give Iran the capacity to produce multiple nuclear weapons that might potentially be used against Israel and western countries.

“In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which is ongoing.” Netanyahu said in a televised statement in English.

DURING THE LAST PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, President Trump promised to tear up the  Iran nuclear deal. However, he might now reconsider it after numerous advisors and the international community have warned him about the catastrophe that it may cause in the region. Here are some possible consequences of cancelling the Iran nuclear deal:

1.Iran nuclear program.

If the Iran nuclear deal is cancelled, Iran would restart its nuclear program to produce nuclear weapons. It would create an escalation of the regional conflict between Israel and Iran with unpredictable consequences. Israel believes that Iran wants to produce nuclear weapons to exterminate them and it might trigger a war between both countries. The international community and regional governments would not ignore a war close to their borders and they would soon take part in the conflict, which would cause a catastrophe at such a large scale that it would impact western countries.

2. Iran and terrorism.

Iran has a lot of influence over tribes, countries and terrorist groups such as Hezbollah in the region. The international community has acknowledged several times that without the collaboration of Iran, it is impossible to eradicate ISIL. If the Iran nuclear deal is ever cancelled, Iran might then start endorsing ISIL and other terrorist groups like Hezbollah and ALQAEDA by hosting training camps and providing weapons of the latest technology to them. It would be a real threat to the region and western countries because it would produce thousands of new potential terrorists a year. An undetermined number of them would cross our borders spreading chaos everywhere.

3.Destabilisation in the Middle East.

Israel might decide to launch a preventive attack on Iran, which would probably trigger a war between both countries. Due to the proximity of the conflict to numerous countries, it would force some of them to take part in it. The consequences would be catastrophic by causing hundred of thousands of deaths in the region. In addition, the U.S. might also be forced to take part in the conflict due to its defence agreements with Israel. As a result, numerous countries would start endorsing terrorism in the Middle East to attack the U.S. It might also cause thousands of deaths in the U.S.

4.The resurrection of Hezbollah.

In the last decade, Hezbollah has lost its influential capacity in the region and it may perceive to attack Israel as a useful manoeuvre to recover it. Iran could also start providing them weapons to attack Israelis. It would be perceived by the Israeli government as a declaration of war which may trigger a new regional conflict.

As we can see, Trump’s decision to cancel the Iran nuclear deal could potentially cause numerous regional and international problems. Without the Irani, collaboration ISIL can never be defeated and actually, it would grow to levels never seen before. As a result, the Middle East would produce hundreds of thousands of new potential terrorists and it would be a threat to western countries. For that reason, Trump’s upcoming decision about the Iran nuclear deal will determine whether it is or not possible to eradicate ISIL.

PRESIDEN TRUMP WILL SOON also have to decide whether he moves the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem or not. Over the last few days, Netanyahu has intensified his contact with the Trump administration to convince them to settle the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem. Unfortunately, Trump’s nominee ambassador, David Friedman, who has a long history of supporting aggressive Israeli settlement activity in Palestine, is now supporting Netanyahu’s policies. However, the international community and numerous advisors have warned President Trump that moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem would cause serious conflict in the region.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has suggested that if the U.S. ever moves its embassy to Jerusalem, his government will then no longer recognize the Israeli state. The Palestinian government might also decide to call on its citizens to prepare for war against Israel. As a result, it would cause a long and difficult conflict in the region.

ISIL and other terrorist organisations would see this as an opportunity to recruit thousands of Palestinians to commit terrorist attacks in western countries. Countries such as Egypt, which has have been very critical of the Israeli policies towards Palestine for years, may decide to take part in the conflict. This would isolate Israel from the international community and would trigger a new conflict involving numerous countries. In this context, the U.S. might be forced to take part in the conflict to fulfil its obligations to Israel.

There is a clear evidence that moving the U.S. embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem would be a catastrophe for American interests. It would also prevent Trump from eradicating ISIL. Instead, ISIL would grow stronger than ever and would increase its attacks against western countries.

President Trump’s upcoming decisions will determine his success fighting ISIL. He has a good opportunity to eradicate it. However, a wrong decision would cause a global catastrophe.

PREVIOUS U.S. ADMINISTRATIONS already made serious mistakes fighting Islamic terrorism. Jimmy Carter and Donald Reagan endorsed Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan during the Cold War, by alleging that it was a legitimate organisation, which was protecting civilians. With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it would change, but the monster was already created.

Al-Qaeda had never had the capacity to commit terrorist attacks such as September 11, 2001, without the previous U.S. endorsement based on training, money and weapons. Carter and Reagan’s decision helped Al-Qaeda to increase Its operational capacity overseas and planted the seed for the posterior creation of ISIL.

ISIL is a scission from Al-Qaeda, which at some point disagreed with the vision of the direction. Its founders wanted to implement more ferocious strategies to achieve their goals. However, without the previous U.S.endorsement of AlQaeda, it would have been an isolated and tiny organisation in Afganistan and ISIL had never been created.

We can conclude that the U.S. was determinant in the creation and posterior expansion of both ISIL and Al-Qaeda. However, it cannot be changed, so it is now time to take more effective action to eradicate them. For that to happen, President Trump will have to make the correct decision.

Regardless of one’s political orientation, the vast majority of people want President Trump to succeed by eradicating terrorism. Hopefully, Trump will understand that moving the U.S. embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem and cancelling the Iran nuclear deal would cause a global catastrophe.

All sorts of terrorism, including ISIL and Al Qaeda, are despicable, horrendous and should be eradicated as soon as possible. For that reason, let’s unite and fight terrorism more efficiently.

Let’s also make President Trump understand that a mistake now would be catastrophic for next generations.

Resist!

By Josep